Will no one stand up for George W Bush? Will no one put the wheels back on this wreck?
President Bush will be the first president in 72 years to face the electorate with a net job loss. The Iraq war has deeply torn the nation. National polls show a neck-and-neck race. Yet
economy-based projections still show a decisive Bush victory on Nov. 2.
What gives?
Political scientists and many economists say this may be the year to throw the economic models out the window. Forecasters are flummoxed about the impact of Iraq, uncertain about the true state of the economy, and less sure about their projections than in any recent election...
Despite record deficits, surging oil prices and the loss of jobs under Bush's watch, mathematical and statistical models continue to project a Bush victory. Economists, however, are raising questions about their own models.
These models, just like the predictive presidential futures market, have always been suspect. To be fair the modelers have always taken their models less seriously than the general public. Perhaps this election will put a number of urban myths to bed (although it will undoubtedly spawn others).