WWRD - What Would Republicans Do?

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Sunday November 14, 2004 · 9:29 AM PST

2004/11/14 · 09:29

OK, so the Republicans are looking at steamrolling through a constitutional amendment allowing foreign-born US citizens to become president. What the GOP would do if the Democrats were pushing through such a bill? Imagine:

Democrats propose their own "Arnold Bill" (a "Granholm Bill", perhaps?)
Republicans express mild concern in public debates about monkeying with the Constitution.
Suddenly, a group named "Americans for National Security" appears out of nowhere.
The group runs ads envisioning a future where an illegal Mexican immigrant given amnesty becomes president. Mexican immigrants running across the border, being welcomed to the US by El Presidente. "Protect our sovereignty - vote 'NO' on the Granholm Bill", the ad pleads.
Prominent Republicans distance themselves from the group and the ads on talking-head shows, but discuss the hypothetical issue of a Mexican president opening the borders, making Spanish the official language, etc.
The amendment fails miserably.

Is it about strategy at all?

soultaco

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Wednesday November 03, 2004 · 10:13 AM PST

2004/11/03 · 10:13

We will now be inundated with hundreds of different opinions on what went wrong, how we should respond, etc. and most of them will probably be wrong.

The Deanite wing will say that Democrats need to go more left and appeal to the base - but were the base unmotivated? Did any major Democratic constituencies stay home? Was there a significant Nader factor? It doesn't appear so.

Conservatives will say the Democrats were too far left - which is also nuts. Kerry and Bush's Iraq plans, for instance. really weren't much different. Democrats have tried to suck up to the center over the last decade, and it doesn't work.
Read More

A call to Seattle-area Kossacks!

soultaco

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Sunday October 31, 2004 · 2:53 PM PST

2004/10/31 · 14:53

Just a note for Seattle-area Kossacks wanting to volunteer on Election Day who don't already have a gig - I don't speak for the Kerry campaign, but I have word that they lots of volunteers in the city itself, but need more in the suburbs. Dave Ross is facing a tough campaign (especially compared to Jim McDermott over here in Seattle), but you can help bring him victory by volunteering for canvassing and driving folks to the polls in Bellevue.

You can show up on Election Day at Democratic HQ in Bellevue at 1611 116th Ave NE, Suite 101. If you're a Seattleite that's not already set up to help on Election Day, consider going out there instead! Brave 520 traffic to help a Democrat who needs it!

Call the Kerry campaign (1-866-ELECTJK) for more info, as always.

Dissent = Demoralizing for Troops? No.

soultaco

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Monday October 18, 2004 · 9:01 PM PDT

2004/10/18 · 21:01

We've heard it time and time again (but only when the president is a Republican, of course): when you criticize the war, you're hurting the troops. Is it true? No, says Fox News military analyst Greg Kelly in the New York Times (yes, free registration required):

In this election season, however, an almost equally absurd caricature of the American warrior is emerging - that of a hyperpolitical, ultrasensitive creature whose morale rises and falls with every modulation in the debate back home over the progress of the war in Iraq ...
In all of [my service], the morale of the units I served in or beside was never determined by politicians, pundits or the press. High or low, the spirits of our men and women in Iraq stem from more mundane concerns. They ponder the same problems that Americans have back home, only with their quiet moments occasionally punctuated by unthinkable worry: Do I like the people I work with? Who will be killed next? Why is the e-mail system down again? Would I rather be mutilated by an improvised bomb or captured?

An excellent piece demonstrating elegantly why the Right is full of it when they whine about you "hurting military morale" by exercising your capacity to think and debate.

LGFers moan about Newsweek poll

soultaco

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Saturday October 02, 2004 · 6:23 PM PDT

2004/10/02 · 18:23

Yes, it's now the right-wingers' turn to complain about party ID in polls. In this entry, Charlie notes the R/D/I split changes from the previous Newsweek poll to the new one showing a Kerry lead, and the tinfoil-hat theories follow.

Expect to see little support for the idea that Republicans were oversampled in the first poll.

Setting up a 527?

soultaco

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Monday September 20, 2004 · 10:04 AM PDT

2004/09/20 · 10:04

OK, I've had enough. I want to see some truly nasty attack ads, particularly one on the "Bush arranged an abortion" issue. It's clear that this election will involve some amount of gutter politics, and none of the other 527s seem to want to hit below the belt. Texans for Truth is a good start, but we need more. What's involved in setting up a 527? Would it be possible, hypothetically, for me to set one up with little effort in very little time? Not the fundraising, just the setup.

Terry Mac sucks.

soultaco

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Sunday September 19, 2004 · 11:51 AM PDT

2004/09/19 · 11:51

I'm sorry, but he does. I was just watching CNN this morning, and there he was, going off on the CBS memos while Ed Gillespie was laughing at him. I've seen Terry on cable news twice with Ed in the past week or so, and both times Gillespie came off better (albeit still coming off like a slimy used-car salesman, as he always does.) Read More

Kerry Vs. Press Corps?

soultaco

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Friday September 10, 2004 · 3:30 PM PDT

2004/09/10 · 15:30

One of Al Gore's big problems in 2000 was the fact that the press corps just plain didn't like him. By many accounts, journalists following Bush were treated more nicely (e.g. better meals), and the Bush team reaped the rewards. That's why this story concerned me (free reg required).

Kerry travels across the country on a 757 airplane packed with staff, Secret Service agents, reporters, photographers and cameramen. The candidate sits at the front of the plane while the media stay in the back. Usually, reporters can get a glimpse of his gray mane when he stands in the aisle chatting with staff. Occasionally, he throws around a football on the airport tarmac, sometimes inviting a reporter to join in.
But ask him a question and Kerry shakes his head, puts up his hand and walks away with a small smile.

This probably doesn't endear Kerry to the press. Now, I realize that it's not unusual to steer clear of the press in this way (as the article mentions), and it helps avoid potential embarassments. But Kerry can't afford to alienate the people that cover him either. But couldn't he toss them a bone now and then? Give them a scoop? Make 'em feel special? It certainly doesn't help to alienate the media.

Where are you, Democratic poll respondees?

soultaco

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Thursday September 09, 2004 · 5:14 PM PDT

2004/09/09 · 17:14

OK, so we've seen in the past week:

A Time poll that samples a disproportionate number of Republicans.
A Newsweek poll that samples a disproportionate number of Republicans.
And now, a Washington Post/ABC poll that oversamples Republicans as well.

I can see the flaws in all of these, given that it doesn't gibe with stats on nationwide party affiliation, and I have no reason to believe the Rep-Dem-Ind split of voter turnout will differ this radically from 2000.

The question is: why are we getting all these ridiculously skewed polls suddenly, out of nowhere? Did Democrats all over the nation just suddenly cancel their phone service? Very strange. Anyone have any idea what could possibly be going on?

One Less Electoral Vote For Bush

soultaco

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Wednesday September 08, 2004 · 10:55 AM PDT

2004/09/08 · 10:55

... thanks to the mayor of Charleston, West Virginia, who is protesting Bush's policies by refusing to offer his electoral vote to Bush even if Bush wins the state.

So far as I can tell, this means that Kerry wins a tie if Bush wins WV. Also note what he says about the Swift Boat ads, which is interesting:

"I only started to really rethink my position seriously after the accusations about Kerry's service in Vietnam, though," Robb said. "I served in Vietnam, and I think Bush's surrogates, and I think really the Bush campaign, went beyond the line with those ads."

Yes, there are people out there turned away from Bush by the Swifties.

Update: OK, my mistake, an EC tie still goes to the House. But one less electoral vote for Bush is still a good thing, I say.

Kerry needs to do something big, rash

soultaco

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Friday September 03, 2004 · 4:10 PM PDT

2004/09/03 · 16:10

I've been as harsh as anyone else here on those tearing their hair out over the Kerry campaign, but I do have to say: I wish that Kerry would do something big and simple that the public would latch on to. There just something ... missing. Read More

Another AFA poll to mess with

soultaco

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Friday September 03, 2004 · 12:44 PM PDT

2004/09/03 · 12:44

Remember the American Family's Association's gay marriage poll that backfired? Well, here's an AFA presidential poll to mess with. The Freepers are doing it right now.

Yes, this kind of thing is a little frivolous, but isn't it fun?

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